By Raj Dixit and edited by Ashok Kumar
Since 2014, there have been three major terror incidents that have shaped India’s response to the menace of terrorism.
Pathankot: On 2 January 2016, several terrorists representing Jaish-e- Mohammed (JeM) attacked the Pathankot Air Force Station, Punjab. New Delhi shared the convincing dossiers from the incident with Islamabad, but left the matter with no serious follow-up action after the report. The Pathankot attack was an outcome of a major intelligence failure. On the operational front, it was followed by a Poor response regarding tempo and coordination.
Uri: On 19 September 2016, a group of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorists attacked intelligence based operation. From the operational viewpoint, the response was meant to induce fear and exact revenge fear and exact. It was followed by a strong signaling through the response’s public announcement, factoring in the element of public sentiment and loud messaging into the response matrix for the first time.
Pulwama: On 14 February 2019, a suicide bomber of JeM executed the attack on Central Reserve Police convoy (CRPF) convoy, resulting in the death of 40 personnel in Pulwama, J&K. The killings generated domestic pressure to frame a suitable response to the terror incident. Indian Air Force (IAF) jets crossed the Line of Control (LoC) to conduct aerial strikes on JeM launch pads in the Balakot region of Pakistan. Pakistan Air Force pursued IAF jets, leading to the crash of an Indian MiG-21, with the pilot being captured. The events led to responses and escalation from both ends, followed by claims and counter-claims to assert their respective version of victory to claim deterrence.
India retaliated to the Pahalgam attack, first, by putting Indus water treaty in abeyance, and then carrying out missile strikes at the terrorist hide-outs and training strongholds . Indian establishment wants the present India society in a state of perpetual war so that a constant war frenzy remains there in the society to keep the nation not only in maintain a strong ultra- nationalistic fervor but also a false enemy with strong anti-Pak feelings alive forever.
Interestingly the hon’ble PM Narinder Modi’s scheduled visit to Jammu & Kashmir on April 18,2025 was cancelled as reports suggests based on the intelligence. However, the Pahalgam area which was full of thousands of tourists were not even considered for any basic security support and intelligence sanitisation. After the gruesome incidence of 22 April 2025 where 26 innocent people were killed by allegedly by four terrorists, in the broad day light, Not even basic support was made available for helpless victims for more than an hour, where the presence of QRT’s Quick Reaction Teams is routine protocol of any VIP/military movement. It is worthwhile to mention that the Corp Commander of 15 Corp of Northern Command was made to retire on May 1,2025 without being asked for any internal enquiry or fixing any accountability in the aftermath of such a big security failure under his command.
Sources suggest that Mr. Ajay Banga, President of World Bank has reiterated that India cannot exercise its option of putting the treaty in Abeyance. Though Indian government can ask for its review if they choose to .The world bank can possibly facilitate in appointing a neutral expert to renegotiate the treaty whose fees could be paid through the trust fund account which was created at the time of the inception of the treaty only if both the parties agree .As it is a long drawn process which will not immediately benefit either of the parties, except Indian government to continue to maintain its false narrative of teaching lessons to Pakistan.
About the Indus Water Treaty: Indus water Treaty came into being in September 1960 after years of long, serious and prolonged deliberations in which there is no provision/clause of putting the treaty in abeyance. Moreover there is no mechanism/process in place to control/regulate/divert or stop the flow of about 130 million acres of water in the associated rivers in Pakistan.
The 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocated control over the three eastern rivers to India and the three western rivers to Pakistan, ensuring continued cooperation even during heightened tensions. No where in the treaty it is mentioned that the treaty can be kept in abeyance. It was signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan President Ayub Khan on 19 September, 1960 in Karachi.
The Treaty gives India control over the waters of the three “Eastern Rivers”—the Beas, Ravi and Sutjel —which have a total mean annual flow of 41 billion cubic metres. Control over the three “Western Rivers”—the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum—which have a total mean annual flow of 99 billion cubic metres, was given to Pakistan, India received control of 30% of its total water carried by the rivers, while Pakistan received 70%
